Task E- Evaluation of the technical results and deliverables, and follow-up

Task E-  Evaluation of the technical results and deliverables, and follow-up

 

  • All countries have fire risk system.
  • The risk systems are correlated to preparedness in all countries.
  • Vegetation is mapped in four countries and used as factor in three risk systems.
  • The systems in each country have been developed from historical experience
  • The systems are mainly used for prevention and preparedness and not for operations or tactics

If the Baltic Sea region adopts and introduces an existing fire danger rating system and fire spread model program deeper evaluations of existing systems are needed since this project only used one algorithm for two soft wares (Behave and Prometheus)  for simulations. It is also preferable to learn from other countries experiences from introduction phases in order to receive basic data for decisions.

Strengths are that the core group consisted of different competences and represented different actors from different levels which resulted in that wider aspects were covered. The project has used historical data from forest fire for simulation with two soft wares to compare the forest fire behaviour.

There is a possibility to develop a common system but it will be an extensive work and it has to be done in steps:

  • Investigation and eventually development of a practical large scale method to map and inventor vegetation
  • Inventory of vegetation in the countries around the Baltic Sea
  • Classify vegetation into fuel classes
  • Evaluate more fire behaviour systems, since  only one algorithm was tested in the project
  • Tailor a spreading model for Baltic conditions

More discussion about the need of a common system is necessary. Costs are for example not analysed and identified in this project. There must  also be discussions about what the system should be used for, prevention, operations, preparedness, education, evaluation, etc.

There is a possibility to develop a common forest fire system for macro regional risk assessment. More discussion about the need of a common system is necessary and what the system should be used for. There is no further project planned in this stage in this area.